近日，奥巴马政府公布了2016财年预算，多数机构和项目的预算有所增加、资金流向及美国贸易目标之间的联系将有所减少。
预算数据说明什么？
首先，美国贸易代表署发布的预算数据将从5400万美元小幅度增长至5600万美元，大多数增加部分将用于法律开支，以在现有贸易协议下开展诉讼、落实美国权利。同样地，美国商务部国际贸易局亦将在促进贸易投资的同时，确保遵守贸易法规，将预算从2015财年的4620亿美元增长至4970亿美元。其中70%将用于促进美国出口贸易。
结论一：实施现有贸易协议将优先于讨论新的协议。农业贸易政策将由农业部下属的农产品外销局负责，7500万美元将用于发展农业贸易、8100万美元用于实施贸易政策。
结论二：农业利益优先。尽管农业占美国出口总体比重较小，农业在预算和贸易谈判中却发挥至关重要的作用。自1962年以来，美国的贸易政策及谈判便与贸易调整援助紧密相关，中央政府对劳动力的支持也从就业转移到进口竞争领域。新的财年，预算呼吁将6.64亿美元款项拨给贸易调整援助项目，相较2015财年的7.11亿美元下降了6.6%。
结论三：作为《贸易促进授权》法案的补充，贸易调整援助将继续承担奥巴马政府的核心任务。美国进出口银行预计，在超过10亿美元的贸易净收入中，其中有10%将用于其行政开支。
结论四：总体而言，进出口银行在收支上能够实现提升，而非开支大于收入。抛开预算数目不谈，奥巴马总统的2016财年预算还包括组建新的部门以出台商业贸易政策。新部门的作用将涵盖商业核心功能、美国贸易代表署、美国进出口银行、海外私人投资公司和美国贸易发展机构等。
注：
本文摘编自彼得森国际经济研究所网站报告“Comments on the US Trade Budget FY2016”，时间为2015年02月13日。
作者介绍：
Jeffrey J. Schott joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 1983 and is a senior fellow working on international trade policy and economic sanctions. During his tenure at the Institute, Schott was also a visiting lecturer at Princeton University (1994) and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University (1986–88). He was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1982–83) and an official of the US Treasury Department (1974–82) in international trade and energy policy. During the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations, he was a member of the US delegation that negotiated the GATT Subsidies Code. Since January 2003, he has been a member of the Trade and Environment Policy Advisory Committee of the US government. He is also a member of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy of the US Department of State.
Schott is the author, coauthor, or editor of several books on trade, including Local Content Requirements: A Global Problem (2013), Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (2012), NAFTA and Climate Change (2011), Figuring Out the Doha Round (2010), Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations (2010), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (2007), Trade Relations Between Colombia and the United States (2006), NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges (2005), Free Trade Agreements: US Strategies and Priorities (2004), Prospects for Free Trade in the Americas (2001), Free Trade between Korea and the United States? (2001), NAFTA and the Environment: Seven Years Later (2000), The WTO After Seattle (2000), Restarting Fast Track (1998), The World Trading System: Challenges Ahead (December 1996), The Uruguay Round: An Assessment (1994), Western Hemisphere Economic Integration (1994), NAFTA: An Assessment (1993), North American Free Trade: Issues and Recommendations (1992), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy (second edition, 1990), Completing the Uruguay Round (1990), Free Trade Areas and U.S. Trade Policy (1989), and The Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: The Global Impact (1988), as well as numerous articles on US trade policy and the GATT.
Schott holds a BA degree magna cum laude from Washington University, St. Louis (1971), and an MA degree with distinction in international relations from the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University (1973).
